War on the home front

or, who rules at home?

The release of a letter yesterday written by a group of American members of Congress calling for ceasefire negotiations over Ukraine underscores the belief that the Russo-Ukrainian war is a typical war of attrition taking place on several ‘home fronts’. It is being waged aspirationally, as each side – NATO, Russia, Ukraine – continues to wage war on the optimistic assumption that its adversaries’ domestic public opinion will lose interest in ‘winning’.

There are, generally speaking, actually six home fronts:

Ukraine (east and south)

Ukraine (west)

Russia

EU (east)

EU (west)

USA

Who will be the first to fold? Talleyrand’s bet is on the USA, followed by Russia, et al. Then, negotiations will happen.