How quickly time passes. Nearly a year ago, Talleyrand took the time to annotate a Ukraine war memorandum by the historian Timothy Snyder. As predicted even earlier, the USA and others have begun to lose interest in that war. Other wars beckon.
What follows is another annotation, or rather partial substitution, of Professor Snyder’s fifteen points in aid of understanding a more captivating war now taking place.
As with the earlier annotation, the following is offered to readers not as definitive but as provocative.
Why does the world need
a Ukrainian victoryan Israeli defeat?1. To halt atrocity.
Russia'sIsrael’s occupation is genocidal. Wherever theUkrainians recoverPalestinians lose territory, theysavelose lives, andre-establishundermine the principle that people have a right not to be tortured, deported, and murdered.2. To preserve the international legal order. Its basis is that one country may not invade another and annex its territory, as
Russia seeks to doIsrael has done.Russia'sIsrael’s war of aggression is obviously illegal, but the legal order does not defend itself.3. To end an era of empire. This could be the last war fought on the colonial logic that another state and people do not exist. But this turning point is reached only if
RussiaIsrael loses.4. To
defendresume the peaceproject of the European Unionprocess in the Middle East.Russia'sIsrael’s war is not directed only againstUkraineGaza, but against the larger idea thatEuropeanMiddle Eastern states can peacefully cooperate. If empire prevails, integration fails.5. To give the rule of law a chance in
RussiaIsrael. So long asRussiaIsrael fights imperial wars, it is trapped in repressive domestic politics. Coming generations ofRussiansIsraelis could live better and freer lives, but only ifRussiaIsrael loses this war.6. To weaken the prestige of
tyrantscorrupt autocrats. In this century, the trend has been towards authoritarianism, withPutinismLikudism as a force and a model. Its defeat by a democracy reverses that trend. Fascism is about force, and is discredited by defeat.7. To remind us that democracy is the better system.
UkrainiansIsraelis and Palestinians have internalized the idea that they choose their own leaders. In taking risks to protect their democracy, they remind us that we all must act to protect ours.8. To lift the threat of major war in
Europethe Middle East. For decades, a confrontation withthe USSRArab states and thenRussiaIran was the scenario for regional war.A Ukrainian victory removesAn Israeli defeat reduces the likelihood of this scenario by making anotherRussian offensive implausibleArab and/or Iranian war less plausible.9. To lift the threat of major war in Asia. In recent years, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan has been the leading scenario for a global war.
A Ukrainian victoryAn Israeli defeat teaches Beijing that such an offensive operation is costly and likely to fail.10. To prevent the spread of nuclear weapons.
Ukraine gave upIran almost gave up nuclear weapons.Russia,Israel, a nuclear power, theninvaded.invaded Gaza. IfUkraineIsrael loses, countries that can build nuclear weapons will feel that theyneedwill not need to do so to protect themselves.11. To reduce the risk of nuclear war.
A Ukrainian victoryAn Israeli defeat makestwoseveral major war scenarios involving nuclear powers less likely, and works against nuclear proliferation generally. Nothing would reduce the risk of nuclear war more thanUkrainian victoryIsraeli defeat.12. To head off future
resource warswars over territory. Aside from being a consistent perpetrator of war crimes,Russia's Wagner groupthe IDF seizesmineral resourcesland by violence wherever it can. This is why it is fighting inBakhmutGaza.13. To guarantee food supplies and prevent future starvation.
Ukraine feeds much of the world. Russia threatens to use that foodIsrael uses food, fuel, etc. as a weapon. As oneRussianIsraeli propagandistputmight put it, "starvationstarvation and disease is our only hope."14. To accelerate the shift from fossil fuels.
Putin showsArabs and Iranians show the threat that hydrocarbon oligarchy poses to the future.HisTheir weaponization of energy supplieshas acceleratedmay yet accelerate the turn towards renewables. This will continue, ifRussiaIsrael loses.15. To affirm the value of freedom. Even as they have every reason to define freedom as against something --
RussianIsraeli occupation --,UkrainiansPalestinians remind us that freedom is actually for something, the right to be the people they wish to be, in a future they can help shape.