There’s been much said lately about eras: post-cold war, neo-cold war, etc. But to anyone examining the Ukraine tragedy up close, it has little to do with the cold war or the post-cold war – which both ended a long time ago – but instead is a violent coda to the post-Soviet era.
So spare a thought for two notable ex-Soviet figures: Islam Karimov of Uzbekistan and Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan.
Neither man wanted the Soviet Union to dissolve. They did much to preserve its ways in their successor nations. And at the same time to keep Russian interference manageable whilst growing rich from Western booty.
Karimov died safe in his bed; Nazarbayev, in spite of a recent hiccup, probably will do the same. It’s not easy to retain many of the benefits of empire, including semi-autonomy, in an imperial successor state; but it’s also not impossible. And so, as the Ukrainian tragedy almost certainly spreads in the coming weeks (the best bet now is towards the southwest, ie, Romania) and probably sucks in more outsiders, it’s worth asking who the survivors of this new era will be. And then to draw the right lessons from them.