Having once spent some time providing regular therapy to the powerful, Talleyrand is accustomed to hearing the words, ‘it’s not you, it’s me’. So readers will forgive his weariness with the lamentations of the imperialist-minded. The worsening troubles in the Taiwan Strait and the Donbas involve many things, and, all things considered, being deliberate tests of American ‘credibility’ appears pretty low on the list. But coming in the wake of public insults of the Chinese and Russian leaders; a decision on principle to hand Afghanistan back to the people the Americans expelled from power twenty years ago and has ‘fought’ willy-nilly ever since at significant cost in blood and treasure; and even America’s number-one recipient of foreign aid (and, arguably, of attention) yet again sticking a thumb in the eye of its principal benefactor with another gauche act of Iranian sabotage… well, it’s hard not to feel a little bit testy.
Prestige is a bitch-goddess, somebody once said. Be careful with her. The China/Taiwan and Russia/Ukrainian problems have practically nothing in common, and so, apart from their timing, are not at all comparable. Except for one detail: the people living in these places have long had – and still do have – a great deal more at stake than any credibility-addled superpower. If America has set its mind to passing a major test, Talleyrand’s advice is to pick only one, and direct its best efforts there.