After three decades of post-Cold War hot wars waged at their behest, the rulers of the world have settled into something else: an indeterminate quasi-war, or Sitzkrieg. This condition is not quite one of permanent war for permanent peace, but also not quite the opposite. The spectre of a major war – between Russia and its neighbours, backed by the West; between China and its neighbours, backed by ‘allies and partners’; between Iran and its neighbours, backed by nobody in particular (with one notable exception) – perseveres without a clear meaning.
Someday this condition may be called another loaded pause. Or not. That depends, of course, on what comes next. But what if next never comes? It has been said that a feature of the early 21st century is the ‘frozen conflict’. Today’s Libyans, Yemenis, Syrians, Afghans, Georgians, Ukrainians, Armenians, Azerbaijanis, Ethiopians, and a few others will tell you that the 21st century has no problem with thaw. There is nothing phoney about their wars.
There’s nothing phoney about today’s general condition of suspended war, either. It does not represent the failure of diplomacy, at least not yet, but has rather become the substitute for diplomacy, much as ‘arms control’ did during the Cold War. Where once there were treaties and agreements, today there are guardrails and red lines. Sitzkrieg is as continuous and as prolonged as diplomacy ought to be. Until the real shooting starts. Then it will have failed, which ought to surprise nobody.