Just when Talleyrand felt the urge to muse about land and sea borders (see yesterday’s comment), the tiny country of Belarus goes and throws up a challenge in the air. Or, to be precise, to the right of transit through airspace.
It is correct to call yesterday’s action a state-sponsored hijacking. Whether or not it sets a precedent is now in the hands of what is left of the ‘international community’. It may present them with an opportunity for some creative diplomacy.
That Vladimir Putin regards Alexander Lukashenko and the country he rules as an inconvenient ally is one of the worst kept secrets in their part of the world. Nor is it recent. The late Yegor Gaidar once told Talleyrand that his only bit of parting advice to Boris Yeltsin was to keep his eye on Lukashenko.
Meanwhile Joe Biden is keen to reset his country’s relationship with Russia, however much he denies it. His administration has had the unfortunate tendency to place trust in the tactic of pre-emptive concession. As regards Russia, that hasn’t had great effect: reversing policy on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, for example, did not make much of an impression.
Taking the political heat for dealing with the menace in Belarus, however, would probably impress people more. The difficulty will come from doing it in such a way that does not threaten Putin’s own way of doing business in his own country. But once upon a time Western powers were adept at such nuances. Maybe it’s time to rediscover them.