That was the choice proposed by a Chinese general 25 years ago to an American visitor. Which place do the American people care more about?
Dr Oriana Skylar Mastro doesn’t answer this question in her otherwise thoughtful essay in today’s New York Times about ‘China’s calculus’. She gives a number of sensible reasons why the US withdrawal from Afghanistan will not have an adverse effect upon the American ‘deterrent’ in East Asia.
But she left out the mood of the American people. That matters because the American people have been told repeatedly in the past few months that their country has no business fighting for people who won’t fight for themselves.
Talleyrand is not a fan of decision models or broad ‘lessons’, but here is one to consider: Hitler decided to invade France when he did against nearly all military advice. His basis? Not secret intelligence reports, a favourable military balance, or anything else like that. He simply read the newspapers. Many newspapers, every day. He knew the mood of the French people.