Observers of the foreign policy-making of the Joe Biden administration are perplexed. Its policies in Asia have been executed with so much ineptitude as to call into question not only the rationale for the policies but also the wisdom, experience, and competence of those executing them.
One possible explanation may be found in a new book, Strategic Denial, by Elbridge Colby, a veteran of the previous administration and, it is said, a favourite ‘strategic thinker’ of the millennial generation. The Biden team would appear to have embraced the book’s ideas, namely the need to redirect nearly all policies through the prism of a ‘generational’ Chinese threat.
That adoption makes some sense, politically. In the last six weeks Biden has appeased both the ‘end endless wars’ crowd and the China hawks. He will have created a broad foreign policy coalition for his party, should they accept it.
That strategic denial has also been extended to the French, et al. need not concern too many of us. Creative disruption means breaking a few eggs.
However, there is a simpler, related explanation: tactical impatience. Colbyism isn’t creeping, but sudden. A confidant of the Secretary of State told Talleyrand last year that Biden has a ‘window’ of about 18 months to get anything really important done. Such impatience may also be seen in domestic policy – if the distinction between ‘domestic’ and ‘foreign’ still exists.
A wise president said, let’s not make our mistakes in a hurry. The wisdom of a dead generation, alas.